Idaho’s economy has cooled off from the torrid pace that marked the late 1990s and the post-recession years, and it will be growing at a more sustainable rate through 2016.
“Although Idaho’s economy is going through a significant slowdown, there are some industries and occupations that will rise to the top and guide the state into the next decade,” explained Bob Uhlenkott, the Idaho Department of Labor’s Chief Research Officer.
Health care is one of those industries and between 2006 and 2016, it will be the state’s fastest-growing, largest and highest-paying industry over the decade, with nursing as the hottest occupation.
Job projections released today by the Department of Labor in anticipation of the upcoming Labor Day holiday, forecast total employment growth in Idaho through 2016 at 20 percent.
Nationally, jobs are projected to grow at just under 11 percent from 2006 through 2016.
The long-range job projections are revised every two years to take advantage of updated economic information. For the first time, annual job openings to replace retirees and those who have quit will significantly exceed the number of new jobs being created to meet the demands of an expanding economy.
Based on existing economic trends and forecasts without regard for short-term slowdowns or booms, Idaho is expected to have just over 30,300 job openings a year on average, but nearly 15,800 will occur because workers have retired or left for other reasons and only 14,500 will be new jobs.
The projections the department issued two years ago estimated annual replacement jobs at 15,600 and new jobs at 15,400, essentially even.
Idaho’s baby boomers are beginning to retire as the state’s population growth, while still faster than the nation overall, is slowing from over 2.5 percent a year for the last three years.
Providing skills training for these growing industries and occupations will be key to Idaho’s economic vitality over the next decade.
“Our job growth, albeit slower than in the past, will still be nearly twice the national growth rate, and that will keep the pressure on to provide not only affordable college-level education but quality post-secondary training for skilled trades and technical jobs,” Uhlenkott said.
Idaho’s population of seniors 65 and older is expected to nearly double by 2016, and that drove the emergence of health care services as the state’s top industry. Employment should grow more than 42 percent during the 10-year period to nearly 10,700, and hospitals will be the state’s sixth hottest industry with employment growth of 25 percent. Registered nurses will be the economy’s top occupation in terms of the number already employed, the growth rate and the comparatively high average pay.
With a median hourly wage of over $25 an hour, there will be a need for over 500 new registered nurses every year on average, and this does not including chronic vacancies. Unlike the economy as a whole, newly created nursing jobs will account for two of every three openings. Registered nursing ranked second in the 2004-2014 job projections.
Pharmacists - with a 43 percent growth rate - took over second place in the new projections, up from fifth two years ago, while dental hygienists jumped from ninth to fourth.
Continued overall population growth well above the national growth rate made local government - including firefighters, police officers and other service occupations it provides - the number two industry, and companies that provide administrative and support services to businesses across the economy ranks third.
Computer software application engineers, which held the top spot among all occupations two years ago, slipped to fifth followed by computer systems software engineers. While both have high median wages in excess of $70,000 a year, the annual openings in each are expected to be less than 75.
| |
Occupations |
|
Industries
|
| 1 |
Registered Nurses |
1 |
Ambulatory Health Care Services |
| 2 |
Pharmacists |
2 |
Local Government, excluding Schools and Hospitals |
| 3 |
Business Operations Specialists, All Other |
3 |
Administrative and Support Services |
| 4 |
Dental Hygienists |
4 |
Telecommunications |
| 5 |
Computer Software Engineers, Applications |
5 |
Specialty Trade Contractors |
| 6 |
Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software |
6 |
Hospitals |
| 7 |
Farm, Ranch, and Other Agricultural Managers |
7 |
Management of Companies |
| 8 |
Loan Officers |
8 |
Insurance Carriers and Related Activities |
| 9 |
Management Analysts |
9 |
Building Construction |
| 10 |
Telecommunications Equipment Installers and Repairers |
10 |
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services |