While the worst recession in generations siphoned 55,000 jobs from the Idaho economy over the past three years, Idaho’s job growth should exceed the national rate through 2018, according to long-term job projections released Tuesday by the Idaho Department of Labor.
Job growth over the next 16 months will be fractional – just a few thousand jobs, according to short-term job projections through 2011. But for the 10 years ending with 2018, the state economy should add over 110,000 jobs – including those lost in the first year of the recession – to lift total jobs to over 825,000. That 15.6 percent increase compares to the 10.1 percent increase in jobs nationally.
The 2008-2018 long-term projection, which ignores the ups and downs of the business cycle to identify the natural growth or contraction of industries and changes in their staffing patterns, presents a slightly more conservative outlook than the 2006-2016 projection that forecast a 20 percent job increase over the 10-year period.
Health care, education, information and professional, technical and scientific services are the sectors where the bulk of that job growth will occur in the next decade. Nursing, pharmacy, postsecondary education, natural resource managers and computer software system engineers will be among the fastest-growing, high-paying abundant occupations.
By the end of 2011, the short-term projections put Idaho’s job total at just 672,000, still 20,000 below the 692,000 jobs the state economy supported at the end of 2008. Business management, health care and professional, technical and scientific services will provide most of the meager increase through and coming out of the recession.
Details of the projections are available at http://lmi.idaho.gov/Occupations/ShortTermProjections/tabid/814/Default.aspx for short-term estimates and
http://lmi.idaho.gov/Occupations/LongTermProjections/tabid/815/Default.aspx for long-term estimates.