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Idaho Economic Indicators
June 25, 2008
Idaho ranked fifth nationally in nonfarm job growth of 2.7 percent in 2007, matching its fifth-place national ranking for 2006, making it one of the most resilient state economies heading into the national economic slowdown Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
The total value of all the goods and services produced in Idaho exceeded $51.1 billion in 2007, up 5.6 percent from 2006’s $48.4 billion, which was sharply revised downward. The 2007 growth rate was 14th nationally. Idaho’s real gross state product rose just 2.4 percent to rank 16th nationally. The drastic reduction in 2006 gross state product resulted in only a 2.5 percent growth in real gross state product from 2005. Since 2003, Idaho’s inflation-adjusted gross state product has increased over 22 percent, 10 points higher than the national rate and the third highest rate in the nation. Durable manufacturing, real estate, health care, business services and retail trade were the major contributors to the state’s growth, offsetting marked declines in construction and financial services. Since 2003 durable manufacturing has grown over 66 percent, adjusted for inflation, fifth strongest in the nation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Idaho’s general tax collections in FY2007 exceeded $2.8 billion, up 15.7 percent from 2006, and receipts through the first 11 months FY2008 were 3.8 percent ahead of 2007. Weakness, especially in sales tax receipts and income tax withholding reflecting the general economic slowdown in the state, prompted the administration to review its outlook for FY2009, cutting the projected growth rate from 3.4 percent to 2.8 percent. Another reassessment will occur in late August. Source: Idaho Division of Financial Management Return to Top
In 2007, 28,785 new businesses filed with the Secretary of State, down 3.7 percent from 2007 registrations and the first annual decline since the national recession in 2001 Source: Idaho Secretary of State
Job Growth
The Idaho economy shed 1,600 nonfarm jobs between May 2007 and May 2008, a quarter point decrease to 658,000. Nationally, nonfarm jobs increased only fractionally over the year, less than a tenth of 1 percent. Manufacturing, primarily in the high-tech sector, and construction lost over 9,300 jobs combined. Gains on the service side of the economy, especially in health care, business services, hospitality and local government, offset much of that loss.
High-tech employment averaged slightly higher in 2007 at 56,700, continuing to edge up from the bottom in 2003 at 52,127. Employment peaked in 2001 at 58,159. The sector has slowed with layoffs in late 2007 by Micron Technology and in early 2008 at AMI Semiconductor after its sale to ON Semiconductor. There was also concern about the impact of Hewlett-Packard restructuring its image and printer division.
Source: Idaho Department of Labor
In May 2008, there were 728,000 people working in Idaho – 5,400 fewer than one year ago and 2,100 fewer than in April. It was the second straight month that employment has been below year-ago levels. Total unemployment at 26,900 hit its highest level since September 2005. Nationally, employment was up fractionally from May 2007. Source: Idaho Department of Labor
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The unemployment rate at 3.6 percent in May was nine-tenths above the record low for Idaho following Bureau of Labor Statistics adjustments for 2007. It continued an historic streak of 36 consecutive months below 4 percent. Unemployment in 2007 averaged a record low 2.7 percent, the third consecutive record low yearly average.
Two of the 44 counties had unemployment rates below 2 percent in May, and another 20 had rates below 3 percent. Six counties posted rates at or above 6 percent, and Benewah hit 7.7 percent. A year earlier, nine counties were below 2 percent, and 16 more were below 3 percent. Boundary had the highest rate of 5.9 percent.
Strong employment that significantly reduced demand for unemployment benefits in 2006 weakened throughout 2007, driving claims up markedly as the year progressed. Overall, there were 511,659 weekly benefit claims in 2007, up 11.7 percent, and payments totaled $123.5 million, an 18.8 percent increase from the year before. That reflected higher benefit payments as wages rose as well as higher wages of those being laid off in the high-tech, construction and manufacturing sectors. The trend continued into 2008. Through the mid June, weekly claims were up 47 percent from 2007 while payments were 60 percent higher.
The unemployment insurance tax rate for 2008 dropped 30 percent overall for Idaho’s 50,000 covered employers after a 22 percent decline in 2007, all reflecting the strong expansion through much of 2007. Rising unemployment and increased benefit payments in 2008 were putting pressure on the fund and likely will force a substantial increase in the 2009 tax rate. The Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund balance at the end of April was $253.4 million, $20 million below the year-earlier balance.
Source: Idaho Department of Labor
Personal Income
Total personal income in Idaho in 2007 was $46.8 billion, up 6.8 percent from 2006. That was the 11th highest growth rate in the nation. Construction and manufacturing, which spurred rising income earlier in the year, fell off dramatically in the fourth quarter, offset by strong earnings in professional and business services and in agriculture as commodity markets hit record and near record highs.
Three of Idaho’s five urban areas saw personal income grow by over 9 percent from 2005 to 2006. The Boise/Nampa Metropolitan Statistical Area was up 9.9 percent, Coeur d’Alene recorded a 9.8 percent increase and Idaho Falls rose 9.1 percent. The Lewiston area matched the rate for all metro areas in the country at 6.6 percent while Pocatello fell short at 6 percent.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
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Per-Capita Personal Income
Idaho’s per-capita personal income increased 5.9 percent, or $1,674, from $28,274 in 2005 to $29,948 in 2006. Nationally, per capita personal income increased 5.6 percent, or $1,944 to $36,629.
In the urban centers, the Boise, Coeur d’Alene, Idaho Falls and Lewiston areas showed income increases from 2005 to 2006 above the national average for cities of 5.4 percent while Pocatello had a 5 percent increase. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Idaho’s international sales for 2007 totaled a record $4.7 billion, a 26 percent increase over 2006, and exports continued strong during the first three months of 2008, totaling nearly $1.3 billion for an 18 percent increase over the first quarter of 2007. The weakening U.S. dollar spurred the sale of nearly $1 billion in computer chips during the final three months of 2007, 50 percent more than the previous quarterly sales record. Raw commodity sales were also boosted by the exchange rate. Singapore replaced China as Idaho’s top trading partner with $1.1 billion in purchases in 2007, nearly all of it in computer chips. It is the second time Singapore has bought more than $1 billion in Idaho goods in a year – the only country to ever to do so – and continued as the state’s top customer in early 2008.
Over 1,000 Idaho companies sell goods and services in foreign markets – the vast majority small and medium-sized businesses. And one of every seven manufacturing jobs in the state is linked to export sales.
Source: Global Trade Information Services of the U.S. Census Bureau
Despite higher gasoline prices, hotel, motel and private campground receipts in 2007 were 6.4 percent higher than 2006, setting yet another record at nearly $389 million. And the growth picked up during the first quarter of 2008. Receipts were 22 percent higher than during January-March 2007, which posted only a 10 percent increase from early 2006. New properties added to the growth in sales as well as higher rates for many hotels, motels and private campgrounds. A recent study estimates tourism generates more than 47,000 Idaho jobs and indirectly contributes up to 5 percent to Idaho’s gross state product. Sources: Idaho Travel Council; Global Insights’ Economic Impact of Tourism on Idaho’s Economy
Construction
Construction values across Idaho dropped for the second straight year in 2007, falling another 14.7 percent on the heels of a 4.1 percent decline in 2006, and continued to fall during the first four months of 2008. Total value in 2007 was just $3.3 billion, and building permits were off 11.8 percent. Commercial construction was up $215 million from 2006, but that was well short of offsetting the $822 million plunge in residential construction in 2007. The decline for the January-April period in 2008 was another 14 percent from a year earlier. The contraction in the industry took its toll on employment. In May 2008, construction jobs were more than 4,800 below the year-ago level Source: Wells Fargo Idaho Construction Report
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